Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.351089 0.402791 0.458945 0.524394 0.598513 0.679774 0.775547
2025-07-27 0.284815 0.354923 0.436990 0.539882 0.665152 0.812420 0.998371
2025-08-03 0.236266 0.317815 0.420083 0.557114 0.735214 0.958073 1.257214
2025-08-10 0.185294 0.268442 0.379877 0.539000 0.759036 1.051012 1.465945
2025-08-17 0.143740 0.223793 0.338192 0.511816 0.766464 1.123584 1.658940
2025-08-24 0.116792 0.194732 0.313079 0.503274 0.797953 1.232887 1.917677
2025-08-31 0.095399 0.169935 0.289901 0.493509 0.825768 1.340289 2.188361
2025-09-07 0.082278 0.155929 0.281090 0.504522 0.886947 1.505709 2.568945
2025-09-14 0.066756 0.134660 0.256509 0.485252 0.895686 1.589030 2.829909
2025-09-21 0.056000 0.119869 0.240532 0.478022 0.923354 1.706380 3.161464
2025-09-28 0.046887 0.106341 0.224423 0.467685 0.943537 1.812792 3.486817
2025-10-05 0.041841 0.100070 0.221118 0.481040 1.009255 2.007816 3.993219
2025-10-12 0.035912 0.090909 0.210924 0.480185 1.049802 2.165998 4.460411
2025-10-19 0.031752 0.084862 0.206246 0.490125 1.113812 2.377775 5.057898
2025-10-26 0.028336 0.079838 0.202933 0.502559 1.185115 2.613449 5.732744
2025-11-02 0.023519 0.070128 0.186975 0.483729 1.186103 2.706284 6.130280
2025-11-09 0.019154 0.060492 0.169246 0.457478 1.166249 2.752535 6.436350
2025-11-16 0.016341 0.054461 0.159353 0.448548 1.185160 2.885184 6.944960
2025-11-23 0.013942 0.049007 0.149856 0.438873 1.200730 3.012240 7.456733
2025-11-30 0.012577 0.046399 0.147636 0.448046 1.264645 3.258640 8.269775
2025-12-07 0.010537 0.041015 0.136358 0.430308 1.256658 3.333769 8.691715
2025-12-14 0.009123 0.037352 0.129393 0.423481 1.276446 3.478724 9.297896
2025-12-21 0.007849 0.033804 0.122001 0.413984 1.287404 3.602840 9.867301